{"id":285,"date":"2022-02-06T16:05:49","date_gmt":"2022-02-06T16:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hfrtc.top\/wordpress\/?p=285"},"modified":"2022-02-07T16:48:55","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T08:48:55","slug":"%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be%e8%b4%9d%e5%8f%b6%e6%96%af%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/?p=285","title":{"rendered":"\u56de\u987e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u7684\u6289\u62e9<\/h1>\n<p>\u5047\u8bbe\u573a\u666f\u4e3a\u76d7\u5893\uff0c\u5893\u4e2d\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5b9d\u7269\uff08\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1\/3\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631(\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 2\/3)\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u6d4b\u4eea\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u5bf9\u673a\u68b0\u7c7b\u7684\u673a\u5173\u8fd8\u884c\uff0c\u5bf9\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u7387\u4e3a 1\/4<br \/>\n\u90a3\u4e48\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u91d1\u5b9a\u7a74\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u53e4\u5893\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u6d4b\u5f97\u77e5\u5893\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u5173\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5893\u4e2d\u5176\u5b9e\u6709\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6982\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e30%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u5c31\u51b3\u5b9a\u51c6\u5907\u70b9\u9632\u62a4\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5192\u9669\u4e00\u8bd5<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf X \u8868\u793a\u5893\u4e2d\u6709\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf Y \u8868\u793a\u63a2\u6d4b\u5230\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/p>\n<p>\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P(X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 2\/3<\/li>\n<li>P(Y=\u6ca1\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 1\/4<\/li>\n<li>P(Y=\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 1\/4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u672a\u77e5\u5f85\u6c42\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P(Y=\u6ca1\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) \u7684\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5206\u6790<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2\/3 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6709\u673a\u5173\uff0c1\/4 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u68c0\u6d4b\u9519\uff1a (2\/3)*(1\/4) = 1\/6<\/li>\n<li>1\/3 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u65e0\u673a\u5173\uff0c3\/4 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u68c0\u6d4b\u5bf9\uff1a (1\/3)*(3\/4) = 1\/4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 1\/6 + 1\/4 = 5\/12, \u5176\u4e2dX=\u6709\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f<br \/>\n(1\/6)\/(5\/12) = 2\/5 = 0.4 , \u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a 40%\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fd9\u6b21\u5c31\u4e0d\u5192\u9669\u4e86\uff0c\u5148\u56de\u53bb\u4e70\u9632\u6bd2\u9762\u5177\u548c\u9632\u5f39\u8863<\/p>\n<h2><a class=\"toc-backref\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/book\/programmer-knowledge-base\/build\/html\/math\/bayes.html#id9\">\u6982\u7387<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u5426\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u5982\u679c\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387(prior probability)\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u79f0\u4e3a\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387(posterior probability)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5b9e\u8df5\u662f\u68c0\u9a8c\u771f\u7406\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6807\u51c6\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u6765\uff0c\u5230\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u53bb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u6765\u4fee\u6b63\u751a\u81f3\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bb0\u4e3a P(B), \u79f0\u4e3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5728\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fb9\u9645\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u5982\u679c\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u76f4\u63a5\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fb9\u9645\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5bf9\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6240\u6709\u7ed3\u679c\u6c42\u548c\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u603b\u548c\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n<ul class=\"simple\">\n<li>\u8fb9\u9645\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u5173\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\uff08\u6216\u66f4\u591a\uff09\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u548c B \u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982X \u548c Y\u3002\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u6982\u62ec\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982A\u548cB\u3002<\/p>\n<ul class=\"simple\">\n<li>\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\uff08\u6216\u66f4\u591a\uff09\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982P(AB) \u6216 P(A, B)\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u53e6\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u548c B \u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 X \u548c Y\u3002<\/p>\n<ul class=\"simple\">\n<li>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\uff09\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 P\uff08A given B\uff09\u6216 P\uff08A | B\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>P(A, B) = P(A | B) * P(B)<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79f0\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u4e58\u6cd5\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>P(A, B) = P(B, A)<\/p>\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u8054\u5408\u6982\u7387\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>P(A | B) = P(A, B) \/ P(B)<\/p>\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>P(A | B) != P(B | A)<\/p>\n<h1>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/h1>\n<p>\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u79f0\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8bb0\u4e3a P(A|B), \u4e14\u6709<\/p>\n<p>P(A|B)=P(AB)\/P(B)<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u6b64\u5f97\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4e58\u6cd5\u516c\u5f0f\u4e3a<\/p>\n<p>P(AB) = P(B)P(A|B)<br \/>\nP(AB) = P(A)P(B|A)<\/p>\n<h1>\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f<\/h1>\n<div>\n<div>\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\u7528\u4e8e\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u4e00\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b\u548c\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u5b9a\u4e49\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/div>\n<div>\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d84b82dba9a9363be085020211797861_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#32;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#44;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> \u4e24\u4e24\u4e92\u4e0d\u76f8\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e14 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-dd8f487b4a7ef2085115311fd0c88844_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#50;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#79;&#109;&#101;&#103;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> \u5c31\u79f0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b59bbb77b41f8aac80dba80523263a52_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#50;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> \u6784\u6210\u4e86 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ffcc6ca4cbe68c6f4237bab250a62b47_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#92;&#79;&#109;&#101;&#103;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5907\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u3002<\/div>\n<div>\u82e5 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-46a8d8479a3c704a64b5003ea340a81e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;&#44;&#32;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>, \u5219\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u4ef6 B, \u6709<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-561c799aafdb0650e57777b6b3e11e50_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#80;&#40;&#66;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#110;&#125;&#32;&#80;&#40;&#66;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#110;&#125;&#32;&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#80;&#40;&#66;&#124;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h1>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f<\/h1>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editor.analyticsvidhya.com\/uploads\/34725nv1.png\" alt=\"conditional probability\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P(A|B) \u2013 B \u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n<li>P(B|A) \u2013 A \u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n<li>P(A) \u2013 \u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n<li>P(B) \u2013 \u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u5f88\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387 P(A) \u662f\u591a\u5c11, \u8fd9\u4e2a\u53eb\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e8b\u4ef6 B \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff0c \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u5408\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b59bbb77b41f8aac80dba80523263a52_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#50;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> \u4e3a\u6837\u672c\u7a7a\u95f4 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ffcc6ca4cbe68c6f4237bab250a62b47_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#92;&#79;&#109;&#101;&#103;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5907\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\uff0c\u4e14<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-46a8d8479a3c704a64b5003ea340a81e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;&#44;&#32;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#46;&#46;&#46;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>\uff0cB \u4e3a\u6ee1\u8db3\u6761\u4ef6 P(B) &gt; 0 \u7684\u4efb\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5219  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c174c05d3f2b1cffc7b0dfc6b4e076cd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format img-fluid\" alt=\"&#60;&#115;&#112;&#97;&#110;&#32;&#115;&#116;&#121;&#108;&#101;&#61;&#34;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#114;&#58;&#32;&#105;&#110;&#105;&#116;&#105;&#97;&#108;&#59;&#32;&#102;&#111;&#110;&#116;&#45;&#102;&#97;&#109;&#105;&#108;&#121;&#58;&#32;&#45;&#97;&#112;&#112;&#108;&#101;&#45;&#115;&#121;&#115;&#116;&#101;&#109;&#44;&#32;&#66;&#108;&#105;&#110;&#107;&#77;&#97;&#99;&#83;&#121;&#115;&#116;&#101;&#109;&#70;&#111;&#110;&#116;&#44;&#32;&#39;&#83;&#101;&#103;&#111;&#101;&#32;&#85;&#73;&#39;&#44;&#32;&#82;&#111;&#98;&#111;&#116;&#111;&#44;&#32;&#79;&#120;&#121;&#103;&#101;&#110;&#45;&#83;&#97;&#110;&#115;&#44;&#32;&#85;&#98;&#117;&#110;&#116;&#117;&#44;&#32;&#67;&#97;&#110;&#116;&#97;&#114;&#101;&#108;&#108;&#44;&#32;&#39;&#72;&#101;&#108;&#118;&#101;&#116;&#105;&#99;&#97;&#32;&#78;&#101;&#117;&#101;&#39;&#44;&#32;&#115;&#97;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#115;&#101;&#114;&#105;&#102;&#59;&#34;&#62;&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#124;&#66;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#80;&#40;&#66;&#124;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#110;&#125;&#32;&#80;&#40;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#80;&#40;&#66;&#124;&#65;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#125;&#60;&#47;&#115;&#112;&#97;&#110;&#62;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" style=\"vertical-align: -11px;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Note that events A and B are independent events (i.e., the probability of the outcome of event A does not depend on the probability of the outcome of event B).<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u4f8b: \u67d0\u4e2a\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u4e3a 0.1%\uff0c \u67d0\u4e2a\u6838\u9178\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u8bef\u8bca\u7387\u662f 1%\uff0c \u5373\u975e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u4e2d\u6709 1% \u7684\u4eba\u7684\u9a8c\u8840\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u4e2d\u6709 1% \u7684\u4eba\u9a8c\u8840\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u9634\u6027\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5f20\u4e09\u7684\u9a8c\u8840\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f20\u4e09\u786e\u5b9e\u611f\u67d3\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u89e3: \u7528\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6 A \u8868\u793a\u611f\u67d3\uff0cB \u8868\u793a\u68c0\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u5df2\u77e5<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P(A) = 0.001<\/li>\n<li>P(A-) = 0.999<\/li>\n<li>P(B|A) = 0.99<\/li>\n<li>P(B|A-) = 0.01<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7531\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\u5f97\u51fa<\/p>\n<p>P(B) = P(A)P(B|A) + P(A-)P(B|A-) = 0.001*0.09 + 0.999*0.01 = 0.01098<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u7531\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u5f97\u51fa<\/p>\n<p>P(A|B)=P(A)P(B|A)\/P(B) = 0.001*0.99\/0.01098 = 0.09<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u60a3\u75c5\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ec5\u4e3a\u5343\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5373\u4f7f\u68c0\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u9633\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u614c\u5f20\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u611f\u67d3\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u5230 10%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u7684\u6289\u62e9 \u5047\u8bbe\u573a\u666f\u4e3a\u76d7\u5893\uff0c\u5893\u4e2d\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5b9d\u7269\uff08\u6982\u7387\u4e3a1\/3\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631(\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 2\/3)\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u6d4b\u4eea\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u5bf9\u673a\u68b0\u7c7b\u7684\u673a\u5173\u8fd8\u884c\uff0c\u5bf9\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5c31\u96be\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u7387\u4e3a 1\/4 \u90a3\u4e48\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u91d1\u5b9a\u7a74\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u53e4\u5893\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u6d4b\u5f97\u77e5\u5893\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u5173\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5893\u4e2d\u5176\u5b9e\u6709\u673a\u5173\u9677\u9631\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6982\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e30%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u76d7\u5893\u8d3c\u5c31\u51b3\u5b9a\u51c6\u5907\u70b9\u9632\u62a4\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5192\u9669\u4e00\u8bd5 \u4ee5\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf X \u8868\u793a\u5893\u4e2d\u6709\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf Y \u8868\u793a\u63a2\u6d4b\u5230\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387 \u5df2\u77e5\uff1a P(X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 2\/3 P(Y=\u6ca1\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 1\/4 P(Y=\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u5173) = 1\/4 \u672a\u77e5\u5f85\u6c42\uff1a P(Y=\u6ca1\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173 | X=\u6709\u673a\u5173) \u7684\u6982\u7387 \u5206\u6790 2\/3 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u6709\u673a\u5173\uff0c1\/4 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u68c0\u6d4b\u9519\uff1a (2\/3)*(1\/4) = 1\/6 1\/3 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u65e0\u673a\u5173\uff0c3\/4 \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u68c0\u6d4b\u5bf9\uff1a (1\/3)*(3\/4) = 1\/4 \u6240\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 1\/6 + 1\/4 = 5\/12, \u5176\u4e2dX=\u6709\u673a\u5173\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f (1\/6)\/(5\/12) = 2\/5 = 0.4 , [&hellip;] <a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/?p=285\" title=\"Permanent Link to: \u56de\u987e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\">&rarr;Read&nbsp;more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-13"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=285"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":314,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285\/revisions\/314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fanyamin.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}